mercredi 24 août 2016

Using Regression Analysis in Market Research

When measuring the health of customer relationships, three metrics are at the core of most studies: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty (likelihood of choosing supplier at next purchase) and customer advocacy (likelihood of recommending supplier to others).

However, these metrics alone are not enough. They provide a snapshot of customer health but don’t in and of themselves reveal how to improve the position. Two approaches can take our understanding to that next level.

One option is to ask customers directly why they are or aren’t satisfied, loyal or advocates. This can be revealing but often people struggle to provide accurate guidance on their motivations:

  • They may never have contemplated their motivations, giving superficial responses
  • They may find their motivations hard to articulate
  • They may give undue weight to ‘rational’ factors such as price, especially in B2B markets

So rather than asking customers directly, an alternative approach is to apply a statistical method called Regression Analysis to deduce what really matters.

Regression Analysis explained

Regression Analysis comes in a variety of ‘flavours’ each best suited for a particular situation, e.g. Linear Regression, Stepwise Regression, Ridge Regression. Regardless of the flavour though, ‘variables’ – things that can vary or change – are always at the core. More specifically:

  • The ‘dependent’ variable is the thing we’re interested in moving, e.g. customer satisfaction score or Net Promoter Score (NPS)
  • ‘Independent’ variables are things that we think might drive a change in the dependent variable, e.g. we could hypothesise that high quality customer service leads to high levels of overall satisfaction

Regression Analysis looks for relationships between these variables. To do so it ‘freezes’ all independent variables bar one and then identifies the impact a change in this one variable has on the dependent variable. This is then repeated for each independent variable in turn. The result is that we’re able to identify the power of each independent variable in moving the dependent variable.

Interpreting the Regression Analysis output

You could run this analysis yourself using software such as Excel or SPSS, or you might choose to use a professional statistician. Either way, you’ll need to interpret the output and four numbers are especially important here.

The first two numbers relate to the regression model itself:

  • Is the model really telling us anything? The F-value measures the statistical significance of the model. Typically an F-value lower than 0.05 is considered statistically significant and therefore we can be confident that the outputs from the analysis are not due to chance alone
  • How accurate is the model? The R-Squared (or the Adjusted R-Squared) shows how much of the movement in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables. For example, an R-Squared value of 0.8 means that 80% of the movement in the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variables tested. That means it would be highly predictive and could be said to be accurate

The other two critical numbers when interpreting a Regression Analysis relate to each of the independent variables:

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  • Does the variable really matter? Like the F-value, the P-value is a measure of statistical significance, but this time it indicates if the effect of the independent variable (rather than the model as a whole) is statistically significant. Again, a value lower than 0.05 is what you’re looking for
  • How much impact does the variable have? If multiple independent variables have been tested (as is often the case), the coefficient tells you how much the dependent variable is expected to increase by when the independent variable under consideration increases by one and all other independent variables are held at the same value. Sometimes the co-efficient is replaced with a standardised co-efficient which shows the relative contribution of each independent variable in moving the dependent variable

Regression Analysis in market research – an example

So that’s an overview of the theory. Let’s now take a look at Regression Analysis in action using a real-life example.

Our goal in this study for a supplier of business software was to advise them on how to improve levels of customer satisfaction. To do so, we first conducted a series of in-depth interviews with delighted, content and dis-satisfied customers to identify all the things which could potentially influence levels of satisfaction. We complemented this with some internal workshops with customer facing staff to tap into their beliefs about what makes customers happy.

Using these insights as a basis we then created a structured survey which, amongst other things, asked 350 customers to rate their satisfaction in three respects using a 1 – 10 scale:

  • Overall satisfaction with the supplier
  • Satisfaction in regard to four high-level factors – product quality, consultancy on product use, technical support and quality of the relationship
  • Satisfaction in regard to various sub-areas within these high-level factors, e.g. we broke technical support down into things like speed of response, expertise of the call handler, attitude of the call handler and ease of solving the issue

We first wanted to test a critical assumption – does customer satisfaction actually matter? After all, in many markets customers will remain loyal even if unhappy because the cost or effort of change is too high relative to the benefit. To establish this, we ran a simple correlation analysis between overall satisfaction and claimed loyalty. This resulted in a correlation co-efficient (R) of 0.79 which suggests that there is indeed a positive relationship between the two (as a rule of thumb, a correlation of between 0.5 and 0.7 suggests a strong relationship and anything above 0.7 suggests a very strong relationship).

Confident that improving overall levels of customer satisfaction would most likely yield commercial benefits, we then needed to understand how to achieve this. Here enters Regression Analysis. Using ‘overall satisfaction’ as the dependent variable and the four high-level factors as independent variables, we first sought identify where the broad focus should be.

Before interpreting the output of our analysis, we needed to establish if the model was reliable and accurate. It passed with flying colours on both counts:

  • The F-value was 0.00000000004. Anything under 0.05 is significant so this result shows that the model is highly reliable
  • The Adjusted R-Squared was 0.87. Again, that gives confidence as it means that the model explains 87% of the movement in overall satisfaction

Happy that the model was reliable and accurate, we then turned to what it told us. Let’s take a look at how the four high level factors turned out:

High-level factor Co-efficient P-value Satisfaction with product 0.46

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Using Regression Analysis in Market Research

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