What Can Q4 2012 Tell Us About Q4 2015?

We’re big on data here at Monetate. Data help guide the future of our products, the stuff we talk about on the blog, and the content we create. We even use data to help you—our fellow marketer—make tough decisions. Each quarter, we analyze the data we glean from our customers as their multichannel optimization and personalization platform, and publish the results. It’s called the Ecommerce Quarterly, and we’ve been putting it out since Q1 2012.

Now we’re taking a look back at the ecommerce performance of retailers during the fourth quarter, stretching all the way back to Q4 2012.

First up: Website visits (by device)

As you probably guessed, the number of people who bought stuff using their PCs declined from 2011–2014. Who gained from this decline? Mobile.

But not all mobile devices are created equally: If you have a sharp eye, you’ll notice that while the growth of smart-phone shopping maintains a steady clip, the growth in tablets has slowed down.

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We think these trends will continue this year:

• Shopping via tablet will hold steady or make an extremely modest gain
• Smart-phone shopping will see a solid increase
• PCs will continue their decline

Conversion rates (by device)

The picture sketched here by these data is a little more complex. The conversion rates for shoppers using mobile phones has stayed roughly the same, declining ever-so-slightly from 2011 to 2014.

We wouldn’t be surprised if the Q4 2015 conversion rates were similarly volatile. But there’s room for mobile phones to gain some traction, as more folks become comfortable with the idea of mobile shopping, and the experience improves as a whole.

AOV (by device)

Average order values seem to be device-agnostic. It’s difficult to make any predictions here. All we can say is 2013 wouldn’t be a bad year to emulate!

AOV (by referring channel)

Things get interesting when you take a look at AOV by referring channel. Email dominates, followed by a respective showing from search and social. We’ll just have to wait and see if all those social “buy now” buttons deliver all the hype they’ve promised.

So what do you think?

What ecommerce trends will come to fruition in Q4? Which will bust? Let us know on Twitter below.

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What Can Q4 2012 Tell Us About Q4 2015?